Saturday, March 21, 2015

West of Eden: No good guys?

Baghdad Jewish quarter, 19th century.
Over at the Frogpond, BooMan is lamenting that there are no good guys in Iraq and he doesn't know any answers:
I can't say that the Obama administration does, either. It's not their fault, or mine. There are no moderates in this fight. It's sectarian and it's among radicals.
I posted a comment:
I believe the Obama administration does have a bit of a strategy for Syria-and-Iraq, encouraging forces that would be able to participate in a political solution, starting with the (Sunni) Kurds, who have proven a willingness to look out for members of other threatened groups (Christian and Yazidi). The Assad regime, for all its incredible crimes and corruption, also has a role because it's seen as a protector by urban Syrian minorities, which is a big reason why the coalition doesn't directly attack it. The Syrian "moderate Sunnis" beloved by Senator McCain are really moderate Jihadists, of course, and not yet to be trusted, nor is the Shi'ite Baghdad government.
A really good development which I just learned about comes from the increasingly relevant Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his militias. You'll remember them during the Bush war collaborating with Sunni Baathist fighters against the US, while he himself was off studying theology in Iran. Now they're collaborating with the Anbar Sunnis of the old Awakening in the fight against Da'esh; this is possible because the US is now far enough off the ground that they're not worried about being seen as pro-American.
So last month, two of his militia units were involved in the murders of some Sunnis in Baghdad, and he suspended the two militias, just like that, pulled them out and cut off their pay, because he won't permit sectarian violence--he's an actual Iraqi patriot. And he's not alone: lots more on such political developments, in Iraq at least, at Juan Cole's place.
During the war, I remember thinking the biggest problem with ending it was that any government installed in Iraq would be irrevocably poisoned by its association with the US; what was needed was an enemy for the coalition forces to surrender to, and I imagined Muqtada, with his record of bringing Sunnis and Shi'ites together, would be exactly the right person.

Also because of his family standing, as the son of a highly respected Grand Ayatollah murdered by Saddam Hussein, Mohammad Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr, and his history of good relations with Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. And because of the way the Americans kept belittling him in Orientalist terms Miss Gertrude Bell could have used, as a "young firebrand cleric", chubby, and not well educated in religion, showing that they were afraid of him in some way.

As the Iraqi government forces (and Iran-backed Badr brigades) come under deserved criticism for war crimes that are maybe not as huge as those of Da'esh but pretty similar in general style, and the Americans too for allowing it—
Images on social media have emerged which show Iraqi soldiers purportedly murdering and torturing prisoners captured in the offensive, including one incident where a bound man is thrown from a tower. Other images shared on platforms such as Twitter and Instagram showed uniformed soldiers posing with severed heads while ABC News discovered videos depicting the execution of a number of men by Iraqi soldiers....
U.S. senator Patrick Leahy called the images and videos evidence of Iraqi “war crimes”. He added: "I guarantee you ultimately we get blamed for it whether we did it or not.”
—it's clearer and clearer that the only way to undo the destruction wrought by the Bush administration is through forces entirely independent of the United States (as if being stuck between Iran and Saudi Arabia wasn't bad enough, putting the US into the mix makes it just impossible). It's a kind of miracle of smart policy that Obama is able to work toward something like this.

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